More than 100 HARDI HVAC equipment distributors reported a generally sobering 2011 to date with moderate expectations for the future, according to Heating, Airconditioning and Refrigeration Distributors International (HARDI)’s recent third annual Mid-Season HVAC Distributor Survey in partnership with JP Morgan Equity Research.

The survey was sent to about 500 HVAC distributor and manufacturer representatives and 107 responded.

Highlights from this year’s survey include:

• 65% of distributors see 2011 residential demand flat or down compared to last year 
• 95% of distributors experiencing customers opting to repair vs. replace and 55% believe the repair rate is higher than last year 
• 79% reporting higher inventory levels compared to last year 
• 67% of distributors indicate said they wanted to see the government ban R-22 “dry-shipped” units despite 11% of members anticipating these units exceeding 30% of their total unitary sales in 2011 
• 95% of participants indicate a direct negative impact from the reduction in the $1,500 federal tax credits and 69% have seen a decline in 14+ SEER unitary sales 
• With 81% indicating a need for the federal government provide additional incentives for HVACR retrofits 

"Our initial review finds that we are less optimistic than JP Morgan about commercial construction,” said HARDI chief economist, Alan Beaulieu of the Institute for Trend Research. “There is some rate-of-change rise occurring and some stability in the dollar spend in commercial construction in general, but a sweep through the national data trends shows we will have to wait until late 2011 (best case) or into 2012 (more likely) before a sustained recovery takes hold.”