While these two markets have distinct differences, in many ways they will be driven and shaped by the same technologies — as well as confronted by the same challenges and opportunities — as the years go by.

To gain perspective on where the industry is headed from a manufacturer’s point of view, HVACR Business recently spoke with two executives from Emerson Climate Technologies. Thanks to Scott Barbour, president of Copeland air conditioning division, and Jim Mozer, vice president of marketing for Copeland refrigeration division, for their input.

What changes do you anticipate over the next few decades?

Barbour: Over the next few years, there will be a digesting of the 13 SEER transition — it will take a year or two to fully play out in terms of a) equipment, and b) familiarizing distributors and contractors with the new equipment. We will also see increased emphasis on comfort, indoor air quality (IAQ), and total system performance, which will result in new product marketing and selling strategies. Additionally, we have the rising costs of copper, steel, and aluminum to contend with — and as a result there will be market responses in price, and perhaps design and materials.

Over the next five to 10 years, we’ll see more use of electronics in residential systems to achieve higher levels of comfort and efficiency, with more emphasis on performance verification. Diagnostic capabilities will be better. Systems will be more reliable and easier to install. Then, our next big challenge will be the transition to R-410A in January 2010.

In 20 years, systems will be integrated into whole-home types of control systems that can be monitored and controlled from anywhere. These integrated systems will be driven by electronics and wireless communication protocols.

Mozer: During the next five years, the issues of energy efficiency, green solutions, and total cost of ownership will be much more relevant than they have been in the last 20 years. Compressor electronics will be more widespread within the industry, providing enhanced diagnostic and increased reliability, and giving the contractor more detailed information on the system’s performance.

Scroll-based system solutions will continue to grow at double-digit levels annually, because of enhanced reliability, energy efficiency, as well as the industry’s ongoing commitment to invest in new technology solutions to continue to move the industry forward. Step changes in commodity prices will drive system architectures to become more compact. The industry will also put greater focus on the need to reduce refrigerant leaks by utilizing controls and tighter system designs.

In 10 years, with the continued growth in compressor electronics, there will also be a growing need to integrate these electronics so the detailed and valuable information gathered can be communicated, monitored, and acted upon. Refrigeration equipment will no longer be independent, but instead will be interconnected to work better together. The environmental movement will take center stage, which will put greater emphasis on low global warming potential refrigerants that offer lowest Total Equivalent Warming Impact (TEWI).

Over the next two decades, system efficiencies will continue to increase, and advanced compressor electronics and enhanced communications will become standard on most equipment.

How will equipment, installation, and service be different?

Barbour: We will continue to build upon trends. Consumers will continue to have more options. What will be most important to them? Comfort? Medical conditions that dictate precise temperature control? A lifestyle, for instance one that involves a lot of travel, which requires a greater need for automation? Choices will expand greatly over what we have today.

Installation will become easier and more flexible. For instance, if the customer wants to add on an air cleaner, the installer will be able to plug it in and go. This will be attractive for homeowners, contractors, installers, and technicians. Additionally, we’ll see greater diagnostic capabilities that will make technicians’ jobs easier. We may also see regulations in the future that will require that installations are certified to meet certain criteria.

Mozer: Demand for scroll technology will continue to increase because of its promise of increased reliability and energy efficiency. Compressor electronics will be used to reduce total cost of ownership and add information to allow for remote diagnostics and control. Some products will become disposable, and some will have enhanced features that will allow them to work under ideal conditions for very long periods of time with minimal maintenance.

What’s on the horizon for commercial and refrigeration systems?

Barbour: Energy management control systems (EMCS) will become more important in all types of buildings. In the past, they have been costly. However, with energy costs rising with no end in sight, it becomes easier to justify the initial costs of an EMCS.

Additionally, we will see more modulating systems, driven by competitive factors — new players in the market will spur innovation and change. There will be many unique applications for digital scroll products, for example in buildings with uneven occupancy rates.

Mozer: We can expect to see new systems that have a smaller refrigerant charge with less leak potential, such as distributed and glycol systems. Emerson Climate’s Comfort Alert Diagnostics, Intelligent Store Discus compressors, and high-efficiency, next-generation scrolls with infinite modulation will be key elements of the new designs.

What are some of the main challenges the industry will face?

Barbour: The refrigerant transition — we will continue to meet the challenges with new products specifically designed to work with ozone-friendly refrigerants.

Trained technicians — we strongly support industry training and certification, such as that issued through NATE (North American Technician Excellence). We also support new technologies that will make equipment easier to install, diagnose, and service in the first place.

Commodity cost increases — these will result in more cost-effective designs and more widespread application of EMCS to manage costs on the energy front.

New competitors — particularly from Asia.

Mozer: We will see more energy-efficiency regulations on the state and federal level; OEMS and contractors will need to be better educated on all the regulations. Technologies such as scroll compressors and diagnostic devices will continue to make the systems more efficient.

We will also see more regulations concerning refrigerant on the state and federal level; contractors will need to be educated on R-410A systems. New technologies will continue to be introduced that are designed specifically to work with R-410A, as well as other emerging environmentally friendly refrigerants.

We can also expect a decline in end-user profitability. This will force end-users to look at their total costs of ownership, including construction, maintenance, energy use, and disposal costs.

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